1. Forex Market Insight
EUR/USD
According to economists’ expectations, the ECB’s interest rate hike is likely to take effect just as inflation falls below the 2% target, suggesting that the central bank may be making a mistake in policy making.
As mentioned by Bloomberg’s survey results released on Monday, 14th February 2022, more than 50 economists surveyed expect annual price growth of only 1.7% and 1.8% in the next two years, while some economists expect inflation to be only half of the target in 2023.
Meanwhile, the median forecast shows the ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in December.
Technical Analysis：
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
Execution Insight:
Today, we will pay attention to the suppression strength of the 1.1401-line. If the euro runs steadily below the 1.1401-line, we will pay attention to the support strength of the two positions below 1.1357 and 1.1315.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
Fundamental Analysis：
U.S. economic data was mixed, with building permits at their highest level since 2006, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell in February.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict overshadowed concerns about the Fed’s plans to tighten policy. The Fed is expected to start action from its March meeting, but market expectations for a rate hike vary.
Last week, the latest U.S. consumer price data showed inflation hitting the highest level in 40 years, and the interest rate futures market expected the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate hike in March to be about 70%.
On Thursday, 17th February 2022, that likelihood had dropped to 37%. The more likely scenario is a 25 basis point rate hike.
That said, the dollar remains largely unchanged even when the Fed has turned hawkish. The pound rose as much as 0.4% to 1.3638 against the dollar, posting a one-week high.
Technical Analysis：
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
Execution Insight:
The pound is mainly focused on the 1.3610-line today. If the pound runs below the 1.3610-line, it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1.3516 and 1.3489 positions. If the pound runs above the 1.3610-line, it will focus on the suppression strength of the 1.3661 and 1.3712 positions.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold
Fundamental Analysis:
Gold prices rose sharply yesterday, topping $1,900 an ounce for the first time since June last year, as investors rushed to the safe-haven gold after U.S. President Joe Biden said there were ample signs that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine.
In addition, an unexpected increase in the number of initial jobless claims and a sharp drop in the stock market also supported further strength in gold prices. However, hawkish speech from Fed officials capped gold’s gains.
The main focus of the day is on the speech of the Fed officials.
Technical Analysis：
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Trading Strategies:
Gold pays attention to the 1903-line today. If the gold price runs steadily below the 1903-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1880 and 1855. If the gold price breaks above the 1903-line, it will open up a further upside. At that time, pay attention to 1909 and 1919 two positions of suppression strength.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Fundamental Analysis:
Oil prices rose above the 90 mark in intraday trading on Thursday, 17th February 2022, due to geopolitical tensions, but fell back as talks with Iran on resuming the nuclear deal entered the final stage, which may unlock more crude supplies.
As the week draws to a close, keep an eye on the geopolitical situation towards the end of the week.
Technical Analysis：
(Crude oil 1-hour chart)
Trading Strategies:
Oil prices focus on the 88.02-line today. If the oil price runs above the 88.02-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the 90.44 and 93.25 positions. If the oil price breaks below the 88.02-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the 85.72 and 82.83 positions.
Disclaimer
While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this document, DOO Prime does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this information. DOO Prime does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly, from the use of this document. The material contained in this document is provided solely for general information and educational purposes and is not and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, securities, futures, options, bonds or any other relevant financial instruments or investments. Nothing in this document should be taken as making any recommendations or providing any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of financial instruments, any related products or any other products, securities or investments. Trading involves risk and you are advised to exercise caution in relation to the report. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their own financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision.
